Don't go by the "100% reported" figure the AP/CNN etc are calling for Multnomah county - if you look at the votes in Senate vs. Presidential, the Senate count shows about 20% fewer total votes than the Presidential - which is showing 40% reported.  The actual vote count for Multnomah is about 32%, which would mean Merkley is going to win.

Coleman is toast.  The exits are terrible for him - he's done.  Senator Franken!  The guy is a genuine happy warrioe of the left - I'm proud for him, and Minnesota.

I just have to say, I'm a very happy man.  I'm close to tears, thinking we could elect a half-African, half-Kansan from my hometown of Chicago president of the United States!  What a great leap forward for our country!  I'm sorry Studs didn't live to see it, but this is my Pop's B-Day - what a great thing for him.

Love you Guys!  This has been a blast!

Am I nuts?  This looks like MSNBC's full national exit poll.  Is that legal?  if so, looks like 55-44 Obama.  Even with a pound of salt (say, a 7 point error to Democrats) we still win.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/26843704

In case anyone needed inspiration at this point of the game...  This has been running through my mind all day.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1VR1bOha4 0U

Just one day more...

Gallup's done a Zogby and included today's interviews in their final numbers.  53-42 LV1 and LV2 (+3 from yesterday LV1, +2 LV2), 53-40 RV (+2).

The final Gallup 2008 pre-election poll -- based on Oct. 31-Nov. 2 Gallup Poll Daily tracking -- shows Barack Obama with a 53% to 42% advantage over John McCain among likely voters. When undecided voters are allocated proportionately to the two candidates to better approximate the actual vote, the estimate becomes 55% for Obama to 44% for McCain.

The trend data clearly show Obama ending the campaign with an upward movement in support, with eight to 11 percentage point leads among likely voters in Gallup's last four reports of data extending back to Oct. 28. Obama's final leads among both registered voters and likely voters are the largest of the campaign.

I'm skeptical that their final LV numbers just happened to merge in the last poll - very odd, that - but on the whole we could hardly ask for a better bit of poll porn 48 hours out.  Safe to say - not that it can't happen - that for the entire industry this would be the biggest embarrassment in the history of polling, by far, if McCain won.

No story yet, but looks like the number is 54-43 which would be O +1 and M -1.  Good news on a day when most of the trackers trended the other way the day after "Auntie".  Also nice to hear Cook stating he thinks this is the tracker to watch.

Almost exactly what I expected from Zogby today.  This will probably close up more in this poll over the next few days, given it's history so far.  If you look at the internals, Obama would have a huge lead if Zogby used a more progressive party ID split.